How can you tell whether demand is durable?
Look for consistent customer need across search terms, multiple sellers, time periods, and price points. Separate baseline demand from event spikes, temporary shortages, and one dominant brand's performance.
Triangulate demand from different signals
- Search queries and the breadth of use cases customers describe.
- Review recency, sales-rank patterns, and visible seller activity used as directional evidence.
- Price history, promotion frequency, availability, and delivery expectations.
- Seasonal timing, replacement cycle, and repeat-purchase potential.
- External category trends that explain why Amazon demand may rise or fall.
Avoid confusing market size with obtainable demand
A large category does not guarantee a new product can win traffic or convert. Estimate the specific queries, customer segment, price band, proof, review base, and advertising required to earn a small initial share.
Forecast with a launch ramp
Use a slow, base, and fast ramp with inventory and cash consequences for each. Place larger purchase orders only after actual impressions, conversion, returns, and contribution support the next demand assumption.