High event revenue can hide transferred demand
Some shoppers move purchases forward to use a discount, and sales may fall after the event. Compare the complete event window with a realistic baseline rather than treating every promoted unit as incremental.
Build the event profit bridge
- Net sales after discounts and event-related charges.
- Marketplace, fulfillment, product, and incremental logistics costs.
- Advertising spend before, during, and shortly after the event.
- Expected returns, cancellations, and inventory disposition.
- Contribution profit compared with the baseline period.
Review inventory and cash consequences
An event can improve aged inventory or create an expensive stockout. Include emergency replenishment, lost full-price orders, storage avoided, and the timing of supplier payments and settlements.
Measure the weeks after the event
Check whether conversion, organic sales, repeat demand, and contribution remain stronger after the discount ends. Record which products and traffic sources produced lasting value before repeating the same promotion.